MORNING MESSAGE: Who Is Keeping DeMarco In Charge Of Housing?

OurFuture.org’s Richard Eskow: ”George W. Bush brought a far-right ideologue named Edward DeMarco into the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and therefore has power over more than half the mortgages in the country. Now DeMarco’s Acting Director of the FHFA, and where those mortgages are concerned he’s king. Three years after becoming President, Barack Obama can’t get his own appointee into the job – because of GOP Sen. Richard Shelby … President Obama made a very moderate choice when he appointed Joseph Smith to replace DeMarco. … That didn’t stop Shelby from claiming, with characteristic discourtesy and disrespect, that Mr. Smith would be a ‘lapdog’ for the Administration. Shelby then resorted to the characteristic procedural chicanery for which he has become so infamous, and killed Mr. Smith’s nomination by placing another ‘hold’ on it. And that’s how America’s mortgages fell under the iron fist of the unelected Shelby/DeMarco regime.”

Pressure Rising On DeMarco

More and more government officials pressing FHFA’s Edward DeMarco to quit resisting mortgage reform. Politico: ”For months, [Rep. Elijah] Cummings has been demanding DeMarco offer debt reduction for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages … now, with a range of supporters that includes California Attorney General Kamala Harris and Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan, the Baltimore Democrat is aiming to beat DeMarco’s resistance …”

Click here to tell DeMarco ”help underwater homeowners — or be removed.”

Former Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Chair Phil Angelides presses WH to robustly fund new bank investigation, in NYT oped: ”Claims of financial fraud against companies like Citigroup and Bank of America have been settled for pennies on the dollar, with no admission of wrongdoing … Meager resources have been applied to investigate the financial assault on our country … the [new] working group must have a strong and independent staff with the budget, expertise and training to do the job. This is vital given the bureaucratic inertia so far. Mr. Holder’s commitment of 55 lawyers, investigators and other staff members is a start, but far short of what is needed.”

Still no final language on foreclosure fraud settlement. HuffPost: ”…the deal … isn’t final until the government files it in federal court. Until then, the public is left to guess whether the settlement is as tough on the banks as the government claims and whether the promised enforcement mechanisms to ensure banks are playing by the rules have real teeth.”

People moving their money from banks to credit unions. LAT: ”Consumers fed up with the rising tide of bank fees helped the nation’s credit unions more than double their number of new customers last year, new figures show. More than 1.3 million Americans opened new credit union accounts last year, up from less than 600,000 in 2010…”

President Renews Effort To End Oil Subsidies

President pushes to end subsidies for Big Oil. The Hill: ”…Obama is betting that the plan will resonate with the public amid high gas prices and soaring oil company profits … The GOP hopes to pin voter anger over high gas prices on Obama. They argue Obama hasn’t done enough to expand domestic drilling and criticize his rejection of the Keystone oil XL pipeline as contributing to higher prices.”

President also derides conservative obsession with drilling. HuffPost: ”‘Anybody who tells you that we can just drill our way out of this problem does not know what they’re talking about, or they’re not telling you the truth — one or the other,’ Obama said at an event held in New Hampshire to tout his energy policies. He noted that, in fact, oil production in the United States has hit its highest level in eight years, that more rigs are operating in the U.S. than in the rest of the world combined, that more than 400 drilling permits have been granted since the massive BP oil spill, and that for the first time in 13 years, oil imports account for less than half of all U.S. oil consumption.”

GOP Won’t Stop Fighting Contraception

After Senate defeats GOP anti-contraception bill, Republicans refuse to give up. Politico: ”The most likely path ahead is in the House. At a press conference shortly before the Senate vote, House Speaker John Boehner said he’s still looking at options for overturning the Obama administration’s policy.”

63% back President’s contraception rule in Kaiser poll. NYT: ”While 8 in 10 Democrats said they supported requiring birth control coverage, only 4 in 10 Republicans did. Six in 10 people calling themselves independents voiced approval … Just over half of all Republicans ages 18 to 49 supported requiring contraceptive coverage, while only 33 percent of Republicans ages 50 and higher did so.”

GOP Train Wreck On Transportation Jobs Bill

House GOP leaders “don’t know what to do” to get a transportion jobs bill passed. Politico: ”They originally planned to have the bill completed by mid-February. Now, it won’t even be on the floor next week. Many Republicans involved say a stopgap measure to avert a shutdown of the nation’s infrastructure building apparatus on March 31 is likely. But there are only 12 legislative days left before current policy expires … Highway programs expire at the end of March, and if the House cannot come to terms with how it wants to extend the funding, states will no longer get reimbursed for their highway projects.”

Auto sales spike, further evidence of successful restructuring by Obama administration. Bloomberg: ”U.S. auto sales accelerated to the fastest pace in four years … GM deliveries rose 1.1 percent to 209,306 cars and light trucks, beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.8 percent decrease. Chrysler sales increased 40 percent to 133,521 and Ford Motor Co. climbed 14 percent to 178,644 … The improving economy may have blunted the impact of rising gasoline prices …”

Public colleges cut back on critical job training programs. NYT: ”Technical, engineering and health care expertise are among the few skills in huge demand even in today’s lackluster job market. They are also, unfortunately, some of the most expensive subjects to teach. As a result, state colleges in Nebraska, Nevada, South Dakota, Colorado, Michigan, Florida and Texas have eliminated entire engineering and computer science departments. At one community college in North Carolina — a state with a severe nursing shortage — nursing program applicants so outnumber available slots that there is a waiting list just to get on the waiting list … During and immediately after the last few recessions, states slashed financing for colleges. Then when the economy recovered, most states never fully restored the money …”

Breakfast Sides

NYT’s Paul Krugman slams GOP prez hopefuls for deficit hypocrisy: ”…all four significant Republican presidential candidates still standing are fiscal phonies. They issue apocalyptic warnings about the dangers of government debt and, in the name of deficit reduction, demand savage cuts in programs that protect the middle class and the poor. But then they propose squandering all the money thereby saved — and much, much more — on tax cuts for the rich.”

Koch brothers attempting “hostile takeover” of Cato Institute to expand their influence. W. Post: ”The lawsuit centers on the fate of the shares owned by [William] Niskanen, who died in October. The Koch brothers contend that they have the option to buy Niskanen’s shares, but no offer has been made to them, according to the lawsuit … Cato’s board chairman, Bob Levy, said in an interview that the Koch brothers, who have the power to appoint half of the board, have been choosing ‘Koch operatives’ for members, with an eye to push Cato toward support of the Republican Party.”

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BOOK EXCERPT — The latest OurFuture.org installment from Richard Kirsch’s “Fighting for Our Health: ”…at crucial times when the law was hearing its death knells, our grassroots campaign helped it rise to its feet. My book begins with the most unlikely of those mortal moments: the election of a Republican to Ted Kennedy’s seat in the Senate.”

MORNING MESSAGE: Bankers Should Worry About Subpoenas, Not Drum Circles

OurFuture.org’s Richard Eskow: ”JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently said that he felt safer in Lebanon than he did when Occupy marched past his house. If nothing else, it proves that Wall Street bankers haven’t gotten any better at risk management … [But] why are bankers at Chase and elsewhere more concerned about angry words than they are about subpoenas and fines? For one thing, the SEC has let JPMorgan Chase off the hook with a promise not to do wrong again – which it then has proceeded to do anyway.”

DeMarco Versus Everyone On Helping Homeowners

FHFA’s Edward DeMarco resists clamor to help struggling homeowners reduce principal. NPR: ”DeMarco and other critics of principal reduction say any policy that appears to pick and chose possible beneficiaries creates what’s known as a moral hazard … But HUD’s [Sean] Donovan says failing to reduce principal for qualifying homeowners creates its own moral hazard issues. Namely, every time a home goes into foreclosure, the neighboring homes decline in value. That means those neighboring homeowners end up holding the bag … John Dilorio is CEO of 1st Alliance Lending, a company that banks hire to refinance and reduce principal on some of their loans. Private banks see the value of principal reduction, he says, so why not Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?”

Bloomberg edit board slams DeMarco: ”DeMarco argues that debt forgiveness goes beyond his authority and would result in untenable losses for the mortgage giants. This is a curious position given that he is a presidential appointee and everyone from President Barack Obama to lawmakers to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has called on him to go ahead and do it. Economists and housing analysts say debt relief is essential to preventing a death spiral in which rising foreclosures and falling housing prices reinforce each other.”

Goldman Sachs exec under federal investigation. Bloomberg: ”A U.S. investigation of possible insider-trading by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. employees expanded to include a managing director whose name emerged at the trial of convicted hedge fund manager Raj Rajaratnam, a person with knowledge of the probe said.
David Loeb, who works on Asia equity sales in New York and focuses on Taiwan, is a subject in the criminal investigation, said the person, who declined to be identified because the matter isn’t public. Loeb is the second Goldman Sachs employee said to be under federal scrutiny. Last month, Henry King, an analyst covering Taiwan, was identified as under investigation by the FBI, a person familiar with the case said.”

Romney Breaks Flip-Flop Speed Record

Romney takes both sides of GOP anti-contraception bill on same day. NYT: ”‘I’m not for the bill,’ Mr. Romney said, but then added, ‘the idea of presidential candidates getting into questions about contraception within a relationship between a man and a women, husband and wife, I’m not going there.’ … Mr. Romney and his aides quickly corrected his remarks, saying he strongly supports the Senate amendment, and had not properly understood the question.”

Anti-contraception bill may have driven Sen. Snowe to quit, reports Daily Beast’s Eleanor Clift: ”…there was immediate speculation that Snowe’s decision to resign was driven in part by pressure from the GOP leadership to get her to vote with her party on Blunt. The fact that she gave only a few hours’ notice to McConnell and Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, fueled the speculation that Snowe, long a thorn in her party’s side, had finally had enough. A spokesman for Snowe denied [it.]”

Sen. Maj. Leader Reid slams GOP for amendments slowing down transportation jobs bill. Roll Call: ”…a frustrated Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid this evening set up a vote for Thursday on a Republican amendment that would allow companies and insurance providers to opt out of mandated birth control coverage for religious reasons … Reid said there would also likely be some votes on other unrelated amendments … such as a proposal to greenlight the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and an amendment to delay and alter boiler pollution regulations. ;I’ve agreed to do these unrelated amendments,’ Reid said. ‘They are not productive, they are not germane, they are message amendments … but we will do those.’”

Presidential Challengers Embrace Extreme Union Busting

“Union Bashing Defines GOP Field” argues John Nichols: ”Like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Maine Gov. Paul LePage, [Romney, Santorum and Gingrich] are anti-labor extremists whose opposition to free trade unions goes to extremes not seen since Southern segregationists sought to bar unions because of their fear that white workers and people of color were being organized into labor organizations that would threaten Jim Crow.”

Richard D. Kahlenberg and and Moshe Z. Marvit propose strengthening labor law to make unionization a civil right, in NYT oped: ”The Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended, has much stronger penalties and procedures than labor laws. Under our proposal, complaints about wrongful terminations for union organizing could still go through the National Labor Relations Board, which has expertise in this field. But the board would employ the procedures currently used by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which provide that after 180 days, a plaintiff can move his or her case from the administrative agency to federal court.”

Breakfast Sides

Americans trust Obama over Republicans on health care. USA Today: ”The survey, taken by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, shows that 58% of Americans trust Obama to make the right decisions on the 2010 health care law and on Medicare. By contrast, only 43% trust his closest Republican rivals on those issues.”

International tension may drive up gas prices. NYT: ” As summer approaches, demand for gasoline rises, typically pushing prices up around 20 cents a gallon. And gas prices could rise another 50 cents a gallon or more, analysts say, if the diplomatic and economic standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions escalates into military conflict or there is some other major supply disruption … any success in tightening sanctions on Iran could squeeze global oil supplies, pushing up prices and causing serious economic repercussions at home and abroad.”

Buffet Rule “would raise $73 billion per year, while affecting just 0.1 percent of taxpayers,” finds CAP.

Romney opposes new law ending bank subsidies for private student loans. ThinkProgress’ Travis Waldron: ”…Romney [decried] the ‘government takeover’ while saying he wished he could find ‘free money’ to help people with their student loans … The ‘government takeover’ of student loans, as Romney surely knows, isn’t really a government takeover at all. The private loan industry still exists; loan reform only takes banks out of the federal loan process.”

President’s re-election campaign demands Koch brothers reveal donors to their Tea Party group reports The Hill.

President to tout energy plan in NH today reports The Hill.

Continuing education programs seen as path to lowering unemployment. NYT: ”Even though nearly 13 million Americans are still out of work, many employers complain that they cannot find the right people to fill myriad job openings … Realizing this, many politicians, businesses and economic development officials are pressing schools with continuing-education programs to do their utmost to upgrade workers’ skills.

Conciliatory tone follows bipartisan meeting between President and GOP leaders. CBS: ”The speaker said Mr. Obama’s support for the Jobs Act, a package of House jobs bills aimed at helping small businesses, was ‘very clear.’ Mr. Obama’s ‘comments about trying to find some common ground on some of our bipartisan energy bills were also welcome signs,’ Boehner added … One clear area of disagreement between the president and Republicans remains the president’s decision not to authorize the Keystone XL pipeline…”

EU rules may punish fiscally distressed Spain, making matters worse. NYT: ”The Spanish case illustrates a design flaw in the euro rule book — fining a nation in financial trouble can only make matters worse. Even insisting on more austerity could drive Spain over the edge. Inaction, however, could threaten the credibility of the revised rule book when financial markets remain nervous.”

Bernanke lowers expectation of additional Fed action. Bloomberg: ”Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said elevated unemployment and subdued inflation mean interest rates are likely to stay low, without offering any sign that the economy needs an additional monetary boost. Bernanke, in testimony to lawmakers yesterday in Washington, described ‘positive developments’ in the job market while saying it’s still ‘far from normal.’ He said the inflationary impact of higher gasoline prices is likely to be temporary.”

MORNING MESSAGE: Forget Michigan. Worry About Hoyer.

OurFuture.org’s Richard Eskow: ”While most political eyes are fixed on Romney’s primary results, the middle class faces a threat to its financial security right in the heart of the Capitol. The Democratic Party does, too. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, who is the living embodiment of Washington’s corporatized politics, is once again pushing a ‘Grand Bargain’ that would cut Social Security and Medicare – and result in more electoral losses like the ones he helped bring upon his party in 2010.”

Wounded Romney Escapes Michigan

Romney’s primary victories still expose underlying weakness. NYT: ”Mr. Romney’s unforced errors here [in Michigan] threatened to turn his appeal as a seasoned and successful chief executive against him by allowing his critics and opponents to portray him instead as an out-of-touch capitalist far removed from the deep concerns of the middle class.

Both leading Republicans out of touch with working Americans, for different reasons, argues W. Post’s Harold Meyerson: ”A good leveraged-buyout operator — and Romney was one of the best — doesn’t sit down with workers to hear their concerns, lest he end up heeding any interest save those of the bottom line. Whatever the reason, Romney’s encounters with ordinary men and women seem fraught with peril and grow steadily more surreal. Santorum, by contrast, seems comfortable only with ordinary guys, provided ‘ordinary’ is defined as white, working-class, traditional, patriarchal, borderline theocratic and seething with resentment at everyone except the rich … Just as Romney can’t relate to blue-collar Americans, Santorum can’t, or won’t, relate to professionals. And the Republicans’ class war rolls on.”

And they are fiscal phonies. Paul Krugman: ”…as Republicans yell about Obama’s deficits and cry that we’re turning into Greece, Greece I tell you, all of them, all of them, propose making the deficit bigger. And for what? For reverse Robin-Hoodism, taking from the poor and the middle class to lavish huge tax cuts on the rich.”

Snowe Quits, But Why?

Sen. Olympia Snowe’s retirement is a “huge gift to Democrats” writes Salon.com’s Steve Kornacki: ”… she’s gone from providing critical support for President Obama’s stimulus in early ’09 to helping to derail the Dream Act and joining the unanimous Republican opposition to his healthcare law. … [But] even if she wasn’t particularly helpful to them these past few years, Snowe is doing Democrats a huge favor now. With Snowe in it, Democrats had virtually no chance of winning the Maine Senate race this year. Now they are likely to do so…”

But NY Mag’s Jonathan Chait speculates that Snowe will go third party: ”Olympia Snowe’s retirement statement … sounds exactly like the kind of rhetoric emanating from Americans Elect, the third-party group that believes that both parties should put aside partisanship and come together to enact an ever-so-slightly more conservative version of Barack Obama’s agenda … I suspect it may not be coincidental that David Boren, the former Democratic senator from Oklahoma and oil industry lickspittle, came out for Americans Elect today … Snowe and Boren would make for the kind of ticket Americans Elect is looking for. Is that the plan?”

President Mocks GOP On Auto Jobs

President skewers Romney on auto industry restructuring in UAW speech. NYT:“‘Some politicians,’ Mr. Obama said, ‘even said we should “let Detroit go bankrupt!”‘ The crowd booed … ‘Think about what that choice would have meant for this country, if we had turned our backs on you, if America had thrown in the towel. GM and Chrysler wouldn’t exist today.’”

President’s rhetoric increasingly aggressive, finds American Prospect’s Jamelle Bouie: ”This speech sums up President Obama’s response; government is one of the ways in which we provide opportunity for anyone who wants it, and Republicans want to eliminate that, for the sake of giving more and greater advantages to the wealthy and privileged. The Republican presidential candidates should take note. So far, they’ve been in a bubble of constant conservative affirmation. But in a few short months, one of them will enter the general election, and will have to face off against an aggressive and confident incumbent.”

NYT’s Eduardo Porter asks Republicans, if not stimulus, what would you have done?: ”There were alternatives. After an initial experiment with government stimulus in 2009, many European countries reversed course and slashed their budgets to try to restore fiscal balance, in the expectation that this would reassure businesses and investors that government finances were under control, and give them the confidence to invest and bolster the economy. But so far, these policies have proved to be an unmitigated disaster.”

Bipartisan support for small business help. NYT: ”House Republicans on Tuesday unveiled a new JOBS Act, or Jump-Start Our Business Start-Ups, bundling together six modest bills that have broad bipartisan support and are designed to ease small businesses’ access to capital. President Obama greeted the package with unqualified support. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Senate majority leader, announced he would soon move forward with a similar package … The new package will not change the world … But it could signal the start of a changing dynamic.”

About two dozen GOP bills aim to cuts jobs or pay of federal workforce. W. Post’s Joe Davidson: ”‘Paranoia is knowing all the facts.’ — Woody Allen. Federal employees can be excused if they’ve been feeling a bit paranoid lately. Given the facts, it does seem some folks, mostly congressional Republicans, are out to get the workers.”

GOP bill seeks to end Fed focus on jobs. Politico: ”[Rep. Kevin] Brady’s bill would end the Fed mandate to have interest rate decisions determined by efforts to lower the unemployment rate and instead use inflation as the predominant criterion … the bill doesn’t appear to have much hope of passing — and Bernanke’s no fan of changes, either.”

MORNING MESSAGE: Why The Public Option Fight Mattered

Former Health Care For America Now director Richard Kirsch begins a series of OurFuture.org excerpts from his new book, “Fighting For Our Health”: ”While the ‘public option’ did not make it into the final health care reform bill, the idea of providing a choice of regulated private insurance or a public insurance plan was crucial to building the movement to enact the Affordable Care Act. Without the public option, progressive groups would have remained torn between reform plans that offered either exclusively private or public insurance. The public option provided a point of unity that became a foundation for the coalition and grassroots campaign to enact health reform law. Click here to buy “FIghting For Our Health.”

Presidentials Stumble To MI, AZ Finish Line

Romney backed stimulus … when he was governor. Salon.com’s Edward Mason:“As governor, Romney proposed more than $700 million in economic stimulus in a pair of packages over three years to right a sickly state economy that shed thousands of jobs before he took office, including offering to hand employers $30,000 for each worker they hired, even though he now bashes his Republican and Democratic foes over wasteful government spending.

Few rally behind Santorum’s anti-college stance. W. Post: ”Some GOP governors in Washington for the National Governors Association took issue with Santorum’s remark … Santorum also drew a tacit rebuke from the president, who defended his education policies Monday in an address to the governor’s group. He said his higher education plan includes a vision for those students who do not attend traditional universities. ‘I’m not only talking about four-year degrees,’ Obama said. ‘I’m also talking about going to community college to get a degree for a manufacturing job where you have to walk through the door to handle a million-dollar piece of equipment.’”

GOP Prepares To Defend Corporate Tax Loopholes

GOP prepares to attack President’s plan to close corporate tax loopholes. Politico:“A House GOP memo drafted late last week shows how Republican budget writers plan to poke holes in the president’s blueprint. Topping the list: the proposal to tax overseas earnings by multinational firms at a ‘minimum rate’ regardless of whether they bring that money back home. … The president’s plan ignores calls by the GOP and the tech lobby for a repatriation tax holiday and a transition to a territorial system, which would allow companies to largely avoid having foreign income taxed. The administration, and some tax experts, say the plan will clamp down on the biggest companies shifting income and investments outside the U.S. to tax havens. The blueprint has been applauded by some lawmakers and trade groups because it lowers the overall corporate tax rate, broadens the tax base and pumps up manufacturing and R&D.”

How much GE really pays in taxes hotly debated. WSJ: ”In a dispute that underscores the difficulty of overhauling corporate taxes … Citizens for Tax Justice said it calculated that GE’s effective federal income was 11.3% in 2011, undermining the company’s claim that its tax payments would return to normal after the recovery of its GE Capital unit, which suffered big losses during and after the downturn … GE said its 2011 tax rate in the U.S. was 25% and its global rate was 29%, up from 7% the year before.”

Americans Increasingly Go Hungry

Hunger on the rise, according to new report. ThinkProgress: ”According to a new report released today by the Food Research and Action Center (FRAC), nearly one in five Americans report not having enough money to feed themselves or their family at some point last year, a slight increase over 2010. ‘Rising food prices, continuing high unemployment and underemployment, and flat food stamp benefit allotments all contributed to the high food hardship rate in 2011,’ said FRAC President Jim Weil.”

“Corporate Front Groups Battle State Minimum Wage Hikes” reports AFL-CIO’s Steve Cooper: ”As states like Connecticut, Iowa, New Jersey, and New York are looking to raise the minimum wage, they are meeting opposition from well-funded political groups who seek to increase corporate profit.”

Breakfast Sides

House GOP may back off anti-contraception crusade. W. Post: ”A bill sponsored by Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) that would allow religious groups not to provide coverage they morally oppose is expected to come to a vote in that chamber this week as an amendment to a transportation measure. Yet the House version of the ‘conscience’ bill, which has more than 200 co-sponsors, has not been slated for a vote.”

Southern half of Keystone oil pipeline will be built. USA Today: ”Calgary-based TransCanada said the southern half of the $7 billion Keystone XL project will ensure that the glut of oil produced in the upper Midwest gets to Gulf Coast refineries. It said this portion, which won’t need a presidential permit because it does not cross a U.S. border, will cost about $2.3 billion and be completed next year … ‘Moving oil from the Midwest to the world-class, state-of-the-art refineries on the Gulf Coast will modernize our infrastructure, create jobs, and encourage American energy production,’ White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday…”

Interest rates are so low that “many investors effectively are paying to lend money to the government,” reports NYT:“Investors buying five-year federal debt are accepting such low interest rates that inflation is on pace to reduce the value of their investments by more than 1 percent each year … The glut of cheap money has allowed the government to keep its annual deficits much smaller than it had expected … The Treasury Department, seeking to milk the moment, may start issuing debt with negative interest rates, making investors pay for the privilege of lending money to the government.”

Insurance companies prepare to serve customers with pre-existing conditions. NYT: ”One percent of patients account for more than 25 percent of health care spending among the privately insured, according to a new study. Their medical bills average nearly $100,000 a year for multiple hospital stays, doctors’ visits, trips to emergency rooms and prescription drugs … Under the federal health care law … [i]nsurance companies will be required to enroll millions of new customers without the ability to turn them away or charge them higher premiums if they are sick. They will prosper only if they are able to coordinate care and prevent patients from reaching that top 1 percent …”

FHA-backed mortgages to get higher fees. NYT: ” The goal, it said, is to help shore up its reserves, which had fallen sharply in the midst of the housing crisis, and to encourage private lenders to wade back into the still-struggling market … The higher fees will particularly affect first-time home buyers … the new fees will apply to homeowners seeking to refinance their mortgages, according to an F.H.A. spokesman, which may discourage some borrowers from taking out new loans …”

MORNING MESSAGE: CEOs Too Big To Fail

OurFuture.org’s Sam Pizzigati: ”Consider Randall Stephenson, the chief exec at telecom giant AT&T. Stephenson had a bad year in 2011. A really bad year. His decisions cost AT&T over $4 billion. What price did Stephenson pay for this debacle? … Our story starts back last March when CEO Stephenson triumphantly announced that AT&T had just closed a deal to buy T-Mobile … But both the Justice Department and the FCC would balk at the takeover as public — and rival corporate — pressure against it mounted. This past December, Stephenson folded and took the takeover offer off the table. AT&T would swallow hard and pay out to Deutsche Telekom the $4.2 billion break-up charge … [But Stephenson] didn’t even lose his bonus. AT&T paid the CEO, for his 2011 chief executive labors,$1.6 million in base salary, $3.8 million in cash bonus ‘incentive award,’ and $12.7 million in stock compensation … [Meanwhile,] AT&T in Connecticut … has cut more than 2,500 positions over the last four years … In Georgia earlier this month, phone workers and Occupy Atlanta activists joined to stage a sit-in to protest 740 layoffs AT&T’s Atlanta office had announced in December.”

Santorum, Romney Propose Cuts For The 99%

Santorum boldly chooses to oppose college education. W. Post: ”…as he boldly tries to cast the race for the White House as a battle between the secular and the religious … the candidate described President Obama as ‘a snob’ for focusing on the importance of a college education and disparaged the idea of a separation between church and state by attacking President John F. Kennedy … Santorum said Obama’s focus on higher education constitutes ‘indoctrination’ into the president’s way of thinking.”

Santorum’s anti-college stance is a flip-flop, reports TPM: ”… the last time Santorum ran for public office — his ill-fated 2006 Senate reelection campaign — he was right there with Obama, running on his promise to make college more accessible to all Pennsylvanians.”

Romney’s new tax proposals will provide “multimillion-dollar benefits” to his Super PAC donors, notes NYT’s Tom Edsall: ”… by my count, 20 members of the Forbes 400, whose combined wealth is $135.8 billion, have given a total of $33 million — that’s an average of $1.65 million each — to candidate-specific super PACs. And it’s February … Romney was twice able to resurrect his campaign, in Iowa and Florida, because of the backing of a super PAC. Armed, as of Jan. 31, with nine contributions of $1 million or more from six men and three corporations and 14 more contributions of $500,000 to $750,000, Restore Our Future did the job.”

Romney budget will force massive cuts to the poor, argues W. Post’s Ezra Klein:“Mitt Romney is promising that taxes will go down, defense spending will go up, and old-people programs won’t change for this generation of retirees. So three of his four options for deficit reduction — taxes, old-people programs, and defense — are now either contributing to the deficit or are off-limits for the next decade. Romney is also promising that he will pay for his tax cuts, pay for his defense spending, and reduce total federal spending by more than $6 trillion over the next 10 years. But the only big pot of money left to him is poor-people programs.”

Romney again advertises his ties to the 1%. CBS: ”Asked by the AP reporter if he follows NASCAR, Romney responded, ‘Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans. But I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners.’ Democrats and liberals quickly ridiculed the remark on Twitter. ‘I don’t know people who fish but I know people who own yachts,’ tweeted Brad Woodhouse, communications director of the Democratic National Committee.”

The GOP is throwing away Michigan by opposing the auto bailout, finds Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky: ”… in opposing the bailout, they really were cheering against America. That’s language that verges on jingoism, and it’s not my usual stock in trade, but in this case it is true. The idea that they were willing to let maybe a quarter-million families lose their breadwinner, out of hatred of Obama and ideological rigidity, was beyond comprehension.”

False European Narratives

Conservative narratives about Europe are “warping our economic discourse,” says NYT’s Paul Krugman: ”The Republican story — it’s one of the central themes of Mitt Romney’s campaign — is that Europe is in trouble because it has done too much to help the poor and unlucky … [But] Sweden, which still has a very generous welfare state, is currently a star performer, with economic growth faster than that of any other wealthy nation … Next up, the German story, which is that it’s all about fiscal irresponsibility. This story seems to fit Greece, but nobody else…”

Europe to consider larger “firewall fund.” NYT: ”Many of the non-European G-20 countries think the fund needs to be larger and have pressed the Europeans to expand it. The European finance ministers have said they will discuss going up to $1 trillion when they meet in March, but Germany, the dominant country in the effort, has been reluctant to commit to a larger firewall, as the European stabilization fund has been called. For their part, cash-rich countries like China and Japan have indicated that they would not contribute additional resources to the International Monetary Fund until Europe agreed to do more to buffer its economies.”

Breakfast Sides

GOP plans to propose anti-contraception amendment to Senate transportation jobs bill this week. Roll Call: ”Democrats are eagerly anticipating the debate because they see an opportunity to use the issue for political gain in the upcoming November elections … Other possible amendments to the bill include … an amendment to green light the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline … meanwhile, Speaker John Boehner’s ambitious plan to pursue a comprehensive energy and transportation bill fundamentally reshaping how the government pays for highways was in shambles, the victim of GOP infighting … in addition to shrinking its length — likely to two years — Boehner will also abandon his plan to do away with funding transit programs from the broader transportation budget…”

The Volcker Rule is being watered down, says HuffPost’s Robert Kuttner: ”Financial regulatory officials, at the behest of Wall Street, have turned a simple bright line into a convoluted monstrosity. The questionnaire alone, inviting comments, runs 530 pages … In the absence of a clear line, Wall Street can always field more lawyers than the government can spare regulators, and what an awful waste of taxpayer money … The original Glass-Steagall Act ran only 37 pages. Investment banks and commercial banks were strictly separated, end of story. A properly fashioned Volcker Rule should be just that straightforward.”

Anti-immigrant fervor in Arizona appears to be waning. NYT: ”The sponsor of the state’s touchstone immigration bill has been recalled, while two sheriffs who championed the crackdown are enmeshed in legal difficulties. And there has been a notable decline in police activity aimed at illegal immigrants … Democrats and some Latino leaders argue that the party has suffered long-lasting damage … ‘There has been a tangible, palpable momentum shift in the state, which is essentially saying, ‘Well that was a disaster, and what should we do about it?’’ said James E. Garcia of the Arizona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.”

States are dragging their feet on setting up health insurance exchanges, reports NYT: ”Many states are waiting for a Supreme Court decision or even the November election results, to see whether central elements of the new law might be overturned or repealed. But that will be too late to start work. By Jan. 1, 2013, the Obama administration will decide whether each state is ready to run its own exchange or whether the federal government should do the job instead … insurance companies, which battled Mr. Obama over health care in 2009 and 2010, are now urging state officials to set up exchanges. They generally prefer state regulation…”

Morning Message: Satan Speaks to Santorum – and Has Some Words For Sarah Palin, Too

OurFuture.org’s Richard Eskow: “You already talk about me like you know me. Have we met? You do look familiar, but I meet so many guys in your line of work – lobbying, that is. Oh, right, you’re a politician too. When it comes to politicians, let’s just say we’ve always got a quorum down here! Talk about your “smoke-filled rooms” … I especially appreciate it when folks like you and the Half-Governor talk about me, because let’s face it: We’re working the same demographic. I’m after their souls and you’re after their campaign cash, but it’s the same crowd I’ve been running with since the dawn of time…”

Right-Wing Theology

The American religious right becoming increasingly Catholic “both literally and metaphorically,” writes Howard Schweber, a constitutional law associate professor at the University of Wisconsin Law School. “There is nothing new about Catholic conservative intellectuals – think John Neuhaus, William F. Buckley, Jr. What is new is the prominence that these Catholic thinkers and leaders have come to have within the domains of American politics that are dominated by evangelical Protestants. Catholic intellectuals have become to the American Right what Jewish intellectuals once were to the American Left. In the academy, on the Court, Catholic intellectuals provide the theoretical discourse that shapes conservative arguments across a whole range of issues. Often these arguments have identifiable Thomistic or Jesuitical sources, but most of the time they enter the mainstream of political dialogue as simply “conservative.”"

University of Tennessee’s Jay Rubenstein on Rick Santorum’s “Augustinian theology”: ”Few modern statements sound more like Augustine than this one, taken from an editorial Santorum penned in 2007: “Our Constitution granted unprecedented liberty to the individual. But liberty without virtue devolves into license; and license, into chaos.” The diction is John Locke’s, but the spirit is pure Augustine. … What does this mean for a nation of free men and women? If citizens of such a place reject their liberty, rooted in virtue, then it is the duty of government, be it American or Roman, to force freedom upon them.”

Several religious leaders defended President Obama during a conference call Thursday [Urban Faith]. ”No one who knows the president would question his Christian faith, Florida mega-church pastor Joel Hunter said today on a press call that was designed to counter “escalating attacks on President Obama’s faith and engagement with the faith community.” “I’m very saddened by that kind of evaluation because it’s obviously coming from a political stance rather than a personal stance,” Hunter said. … Other religious and non-profit leaders on the call talked up the good works they’ve been engaged in with the White House Office of Faith-based and Neighborhood Partnerships.”

Republican Plans Make The Deficit Worse

AP: Huge tax cuts in the budget plans of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum would produce the kinds of trillion-dollar-plus deficits that the GOP candidates are blaming on President Barack Obama. That’s the finding by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington-based budget watchdog group. The study also says the more modest tax and spending plans of Mitt Romney wouldn’t make a dent in deficits that are on track to average $800 billion or so a year over the coming decade under current trends and policies – and could add to them considerably.

The Christian Science Monitor breaks down the details.

Republican proposals panned at New America Foundation panel. Former Congressman Vic Fazio had troubling thoughts about the responsibility of the GOP’s candidates’ proposals: “We have a historically low rate of taxation at 15% of GDP. Spending is at 23% of GDP. We have to move to close that gap. All of these proposals would widen it.” … The GOP’s Norquistism remains the greatest sticking point to garnering good scores from impartial, non-partisan arbiters like this.

Howard Gleckman at TaxVox: ”Except for [Ron] Paul, each of the candidates has the same problem. They have enthusiastically promised to cut taxes in very specific ways—sometimes by vast amounts. But when it comes to offsetting spending reductions or cuts in tax breaks, they mostly offer little more than platitudes.”

Meanwhile, a host of business tax breaks favored by both conservatives and progressives may hang in limbo until after the 2012 elections. [Bloomberg Businessweek]: “Business-backed efforts to extend dozens of expired U.S. tax breaks including those for corporate research, teachers’ out-of-pocket expenses and energy-efficient appliances probably won’t be considered until a post-election session of Congress, lawmakers and lobbyists said. Lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus, tried to include some of the breaks in pending legislation to extend an expiring payroll tax cut. That effort didn’t succeed, and the intense politics surrounding U.S. tax policy may discourage lawmakers from acting until the end of 2012.”

Gas Pains and Transportation Indigestion

USA Today: “The USA is at a critical juncture in how it pays for roads, bridges and transit. That’s because the federal tax on gasoline, the primary method since 1956, has lost one-third of its buying power since it was last raised in 1993. States add their own tax on top of that, but the federal tax accounts for about 45%-50% of capital spending for transportation. The federal gas tax — 18.4 cents a gallon for gasoline, 24.4 cents for diesel — is growing anemic because of more fuel-efficient vehicles, Americans driving fewer miles and the growth of electric and alternative-fuel vehicles. The tax rate on gasohol and most other special fuels is much less. “It no longer works as our primary source,” says Jim Burnley, a Washington, D.C., transportation attorney who was Transportation secretary for President Reagan. “We’re going to have to figure out, as a country, other mechanisms.” … Grover Norquist, a prominent tax foe and president of Americans for Tax Reform, says the federal gas tax should be reduced “to near zero” and the states should determine how to build and repair roads and bridges within their borders, even interstate highways.”

But the public is resisting raising state-level gasoline taxes, according to Stateline: Two out of three Iowans say they oppose the increases, according to The Des Moines Register. Iowa is not the only state where the public remains unconvinced of the need to hike gas taxes. Recent polls from Michigan and Maryland show similar levels of opposition, an obstacle for governors in both states.

House Republicans are reworking Speaker John Boehner’s signature energy-infrastructure package

to lower the price tag, shorten the duration and eliminate a controversial provision on transit funding, reports Politico. “The bill has drawn criticism from transit advocates as well as fiscal conservatives, who have expressed concern that the existing $260 billion, five-year version wouldn’t cut enough from current spending and would diverge from the “user-pays” model that many on the right prefer. … GOP leaders will now seek to put together a more short-lived transportation bill and leave the task of securing a longer one to the next president and the next Congress…”

The Battle Over Mortgage Relief

Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. lender by assets, will stop selling new home loans to Fannie Mae after a dispute over faulty mortgages. Bloomberg: “The bank is cutting off Fannie Mae from loans starting this month, except for modifications and some refinancings, because of the U.S.-controlled company’s stance on repurchases, Bank of America said yesterday in a filing. The firms are in talks to end the disagreement, the bank said. … In November, the lender said it refused to cooperate with what it deemed a new Fannie Mae policy that required loan repurchases if an insurer drops coverage. … Fannie Mae typically requires a borrower to buy mortgage insurance if the loan exceeds 80 percent of the home’s value. The coverage guards against losses when borrowers default and foreclosure fails to recoup costs. Mortgage guarantors, including MGIC Investment Corp., Radian Group Inc. and American International Group Inc.’s United Guaranty, have been voiding policies for errors including inflated appraisals or borrower incomes.”

Yves Smith’s take at Naked Capitalism: ”BofA is trying to blame Fannie, when in fact it appears the mortgage insurers have changed policies while nothing may have changed at Fannie. Is it just easier to blame the GSEs as one of the least loved brands in America? And the other bit that is open to question is the actions of the mortgage insurers. Even though they are not exactly an upstanding bunch, if BofA really is presenting loans to be insured with bogus appraisals, even scummy guys can be in the right now and again.”

The right-wing line that the housing crisis was caused by irresponsible homeowners living beyond their means doesn’t hold up. Kevin Drum explains: “Josh Mason and Arjun Jayadev recently decided to take the standard formula for decomposing public-sector debt changes and apply it to household debt over the past century or so. What they discovered was that although households did increase their borrowing during the housing bubble era (2000-06), that hasn’t been a general trend over the past few decades. It’s the other stuff that’s changed: “If interest rates, growth and inflation over 1981-2011 had remained at their average levels of the previous 30 years, then the exact same spending decisions by households would have resulted in a debt-to-income ratio in 2010 below that of 1980… As a practical matter, it seems clear that, just as the rise in leverage was not the result of more borrowing, any reduction in leverage will not come about through less borrowing. To substantially reduce household debt will require some combination of financial repression to hold interest rates below growth rates for an extended period, and larger-scale and more systematic debt write-downs.” ”

Bloomberg Businessweek’s “best recovery story” comes from Iceland: ”Since the end of 2008, the island’s banks have forgiven loans equivalent to 13 percent of gross domestic product, easing the debt burdens of more than a quarter of the population, according to a report published this month by the Icelandic Financial Services Association. … “You could safely say that Iceland holds the world record in household debt relief,” said Lars Christensen, chief emerging markets economist at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Iceland followed the textbook example of what is required in a crisis. Any economist would agree with that.” … The island’s households were helped by an agreement between the government and the banks, which are still partly controlled by the state, to forgive debt exceeding 110 percent of home values. On top of that, a Supreme Court ruling in June 2010 found loans indexed to foreign currencies were illegal, meaning households no longer need to cover krona losses.”

Breakfast Sides

Ridicule helped doom extreme Virginia anti-abortion bill [AP]: ”Once the word “transvaginal” became a big joke on “Saturday Night Live” and “The Daily Show With Jon Stewart,” it wasn’t long before Virginia’s conservative Republicans realized they had overreached on abortion. … At issue was a bill pushed by anti-abortion lawmakers that would have required women seeking an abortion to undergo a transvaginal sonogram, in which a wand is inserted in the vagina to yield an image of the fetus.”

Marriage equality wins in Maryland, but McClatchy reporter Curtis Tate reminds that at this rate “it could be years before gay and lesbian couples can marry in all 50 states. No current court case will result in same-sex marriage nationwide, legal experts say, and the best near-term outcome for supporters will be that some states allow it, and the federal government will defer to each state on the question of who is married and who isn’t. And in the meantime, opponents of gay marriage vow to take the issue directly to voters — and the ballot box is the one place where they haven’t lost.”

Russ Feingold takes on Obama on SuperPACs even as he signs on as an Obama re-election co-chair. Amy Goodman interviews Feingold: “I asked him if he was an odd choice for the position. Feingold responded: “How about a co-chair that’s proud of him for bringing us healthcare for the first time in 70 years? How about a co-chair who thinks that he has actually done a good thing with the economy and helped with the stimulus package, and we’ve had 22 months of positive job growth? … And finally, how about a co-chair of a president who I believe will help us appoint justices who will overturn Citizens United?”"

Talking Points Memo lists “winners and losers of the payroll tax debacle” after President Obama signs the tax relief bill Thursday.

Morning Message: The President’s Corporate Tax Message: Say What?

OurFuture,org’s Robert Borosage: The president wants to show that he’s sensitive to business complaints about a tax code with the highest nominal corporate tax rates in the industrial world, outraged at the loopholes and scams built into the code, committed to providing incentives for business to create jobs here at home, and stout in opposing more corporate tax cuts unlike his Republican opponents. But a brief look at the framework shows how truly limited and conservative our debate has become. The corporation lobby has won the fight before it has begun by defining the terms of the debate.

The Obama Tax Shuffle

President Obama’s corporate tax reform proposal gets mixed reviews [AP]:“Economists note that Obama’s plan would upturn the very playing field the administration says it wants to level. It would give manufacturers preferential treatment: Tax breaks would effectively cap their rate at 25 percent. Other companies would pay up to 28 percent. … Some say such varying rates can distort the economy by diverting investment into some industries and away from others that might pack a bigger economic punch.”

Howard Gleckman at the Tax Policy Center’s TaxVox says Obama correctly diagnoses the problem with corporate taxes. But: ”After doing a great job explaining the problem, Obama often flops when it comes to a cure. Sure, he proposes cutting the corporate rate. These days, who doesn’t? But when it comes to which tax preferences he’d dump, Obama often ducks the tough choices. More troubling, some of his proposed cures may make the disease worse.”

Pat Garofalo offers some praise for the proposal at Think Progress: ”The proposal also includes some important smaller changes that will make the tax code fairer and more equitable … They would certainly help by ending some of the more abusive practices that have made the U.S. tax code the mess that it is.”

Robert Reich asks, why should corporations get a tax cut from President Obama? ”It’s not as if corporations are hurting. Quite the contrary. American companies are booking higher profits than ever. They’re sitting on $2 trillion of cash they don’t know what to do with. And it’s not as if corporate taxes are high. In fact, corporate tax receipts as a share of profits is now at its lowest level in at least 40 years. According to the Congressional Budget Office, corporate federal taxes paid last year dropped to 12.1 percent of profits earned from activities within the United States. That’s a gigantic drop from the 25.6 percent, on average, that corporations paid from 1987 to 2008. And it’s not that corporations are paying an inordinate share of federal tax revenues. Here again, the reality is just the opposite.”

Lowering corporate taxes won’t create more jobs, says Time columnist Rana Foroohar: ”Fundamentally, lower taxes aren’t the reason that businesses choose to invest, or not, in a certain country. … Consider the recently released Harvard Business School study looking at insourcing and outsourcing decisions among 10,000 alumnae who are running American businesses. The key reason for outsourcing wasn’t labor cost, but a combination of cost, proximity to market, and (most importantly) better worker skill sets abroad. In order for America to create jobs at home, we need to do the heavy lifting to reform education and develop workers who can do the sort of jobs businesses need them to do.”

Honey, We’re Shrinking The GOP

The winner of the Wednesday GOP debate: Barack Obama, says The American Prospect’s Jamelle Bouie: ”This wasn’t apparent at the beginning; during the first forty minutes, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul argued about earmarks, and made the usual promise to cut taxes, cut spending, and magically balance the budget. But by the end of the event, the candidates had revealed their hostility toward women and Latinos, and further ensured that they would stay on Obama’s side into he fall. …Even if Republicans were trying to make themselves a hard sell for women and Latinos, I’m not sure they could have done a better job. ”

Fears raise within the Republican Party over presidential campaigns that are driving away independents, people of color [Politico]:

“The phenomenon of a party talking to itself — rather than reaching out to new voters — was on sharp display at a candidates debate here Wednesday night marked by nearly two hours of peevish and often confusing exchanges between Mitt Romney and his surging challenger, Rick Santorum. Even before the debate, an array of prominent Republicans, in interviews with POLITICO, were pleading for the candidates to pay attention to the appearance of tone-deafness and do more to show they desire — and can deliver — a more inclusive and forward-looking party.”

Rick Santorum has a long history of making incendiary comments about the threat of “secularism” from the left [Washington Post]: ”Santorum has regularly argued on the campaign trail that Obama and his allies’ views on abortion, same-sex marriage and the proper role of government prove they have distinctly secular values — and that the election offers a key and perhaps final chance for religious people to fend off their intrusions. … But even in a nominating process heavy on Christian themes, Santorum, who is Catholic, stands out for his comfort in embracing religion. His contention that government is intruding into religious liberty predates the Obama decision.”

Carl Hiassen at the Miami Herald: ”Ignoring years of public-opinion polls, the GOP is boldly marching backwards into the 1960s to question whether contraception is a legitimate health-care benefit. … As political miscalculations go, this one could be epic. If you’re looking for a sure way to galvanize female voters against your own party, attack birth control.”

Kevin Drum at Mother Jones finds himself at “profound indecision” about Rick Santorum’s debate performance: ”Should I root for Santorum…because he’ll really and truly represent the insanity the Republican Party has descended to, and provide us with a Goldwater moment that might shock them back into sensibility? Or is that juvenile and dangerous? After all, there’s always a chance he could win. I don’t know. I just don’t know. But it’s hard not to feel that America really needs a long, hard look into the id of the Republican Party, and then needs to decide if that’s where it wants to go. Santorum, even if he has no other redeeming features, at least provides us with that.”

Check out the “what you missed” tick-tock of the debate by Time’s Michael Scherer.

Curbing Wall Street: Fights On Bank Fees, Mortgages

Why the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is moving on debit-card overdraft fees less than two years after Federal Reserve regulations went into effect. [Bloomberg Businessweek]: ”The changes, however, only made a dent. As we reported in October, overdraft fee revenue to banks from ATM and retail purchases was still on track to top $16 billion last year, just a 16 percent drop from its peak in 2009, according to Moebs Services, a banking consultancy. The rates are still so high in part because many banks launched aggressive marketing campaigns to get customers to sign up, with letters, calls, and e-mails that at times were alarmist warnings of what would happen if you didn’t opt in.”

Firedoglake’s David Dayen quotes from the statement on overdraft fees from consumer bureau chief Richard Cordray:“Overdrafts can provide consumers with needed access to funds, but the growing costs of overdraft practices have the capacity to inflict serious economic harm. We want to learn how consumers are affected and how well they are able to learn about the costs and risks of overdrafts.”

The administration’s foreclosure settlement opens doors for fighting fraudulent banks, writes In These Times’ Roger Bybee: It’s “not an It’s a Wonderful Life triumph of “organized people over organized money.” … Instead, the deal puts the foreclosure-fraud struggle on a new level, demanding continued struggle in the spirit and through strategies exemplified by the Occupy movement. It’s a partial setback for the banks, forcing them to cough up a sizable (but still inadequate) chunk of money while shamefully shielding them legally on some key issues. But at the same time, it creates a federal task force, headed by the aggressive New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, and more clear-cut options for victimized families and housing advocates to pursue.”

Breakfast Sides

The stimulus continues to deliver [The Hill]: ”The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that President Obama’s 2009 stimulus package continues to have a significant effect. The bill raised fourth-quarter 2011 gross domestic product by as much as 1.5 percent, it states, and lowered the unemployment rate by as much as 1.1 percentage points.”

Anti-union push moves to New Hampshire, the AFL-CIO blog reports. ”At a time when the tea party-driven Republican agenda in New Hampshire’s state capitol is more unpopular than ever with voters on both sides of the aisle, Republican House Labor Committee Chairman Gary Daniels and his allies have ramped up their attacks on working people. In a work session yesterday, the House Labor Committee took another step towards dismantling New Hampshire’s collective bargaining rights law by voting no fewer than five anti-worker bills ‘ought to pass.’”

Morning Message: Obama vs. Obama: One Budget, Two Competing Visions of the Future

OurFuture.org’s Richard Eskow: “Today the Western world is divided between two visions of our economic future. One vision is of austerity and the other is of growth. One is of hope and possibility, the other of despair and cynicism. The battle between these two visions has divided the United States and the entire Western world. And both of them can be found in in President Obama latest budget. It’s almost as if the President decided that if the Republicans can’t provide him with a challenger worthy of this debate, he’ll conduct it with himself.”

Super PACs To The Rescue?

G.O.P. Campaigns Grow More Dependent on ‘Super PAC’ Aid [NYT]: “Weeks of intense campaigning in the early nominating states have left the leading Republican presidential candidates increasingly dependent on millions of dollars spent on their behalf by outside ‘super PACs,’ reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on Monday showed. Mitt Romney’s campaign spent close to $19 million during January, almost three times as much as the $6.5 million he raised…. Newt Gingrich raised nearly as much, $5.6 million, and spent close to $6 million.  …The super PAC backing Mr. Romney, Restore Our Future, raised $6.6 million in January and spent close to $14 million, much of it on advertisements battering Mr. Gingrich in Iowa and Florida. A super PAC backing Mr. Gingrich raised much more that month — almost $11 million — and spent most of it on attack advertisements against Mr. Romney…  The spending reports revealed the breadth and power of super PACs as the campaign hits a critical and perhaps decisive period, with outside groups poised to pick up a growing share of political spending during the costly primary battle that lies ahead.”

Romney Benefits From Campaign, SuperPAC Funds [NPR]: “Reports filed at the Federal Election Commission Monday night show just how important a superPAC can be.  Last month, the campaign of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney raised $6.4 million. The pro-Romney superPAC called Restore Our Future raised $6.6 million. And three donors joined a select group which has given the superPAC $500,000 to a million each.  ‘What gave him (Romney) his financial advantage were 25 donors to the superPAC’” says Anthony Corrado, a political scientist at Colby College.”

Pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action raises $58,815.83 in January [Washington Post]: “President Obama surprised a lot of pundits, and dismayed many reformers, when he announced earlier this month that he would allow campaign aides and Cabinet members to help a “super PAC” raise unlimited funds for his reelection.  Now we know why some Obama supporters may have been so panicked: Priorities USA Action, the main pro-Obama super PAC, raised just $58,815.83 in January, according to a report filed late Monday with the Federal Election Commission.   By comparison, Restore Our Future, the super PAC backing GOP challenger Mitt Romney, raised an average of $212,000 per day in the same month.”

2012: Year Of The Billionaire

At HuffPo, Robert Kutter called Americans Elect “the radical center we don’t need”: “If anything, Americans Elect and David Walker epitomize all that’s wrong with American democracy. Americans Elect is the creature of multi-millionaires and billionaires, who now have the ability to spend infinite money putting their thumbs on the scales of American democracy thanks to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. Walker himself enjoys his enlarged megaphone thanks to the billion dollars that retired private equity mogul Pete Peterson put into the austerity crusade.  The deadlock preventing solutions to America’s real problems is not the result of a symmetrical partisan stand-off. Republicans are surely farther to the right than any mainstream party in American history, but today’s Democrats are hardly left-wing. The policy stalemate is simply the consequence of Republicans blocking everything Obama proposes.  We already have a centrist party. It’s called the Democrats. Obama’s Democrats are to the right of Richard Nixon on most domestic economic issues. If Democrats had not joined Republicans in financial deregulation, we never would have had the economic collapse of 2008.”

PayPal co-founder donates millions to Ron Paul super PAC [CNN Money]: “Silicon Valley renaissance man Peter Thiel donated another $1.7 million in January to a super PAC that backs Ron Paul, according to disclosure documents filed Monday. The PayPal co-founder donated $1 million on January 3, and followed that up 10 days later with an additional $700,000 gift.  The donations, disclosed in Federal Election Commission filings, account for almost 75% of the $2.3 million collected by the Endorse Liberty super PAC last month. They aren’t the first donations from the entrepreneur, venture capitalist and hedge fund manager. Thiel made donations of $150,000 and $750,000 to the super PAC in December, gifts that were disclosed in the committee’s year-end filing.”

Slates David Weigel takes account of Ron Paul’s billionaire backer —PayPal Founder Paul Thiel: “Some Ron Paul supporters talk about the election as a choice: salvation or doom.  …Thiel, who is ostensibly doing more than anyone else to help Paul win, is already looking past the election. It is teaching moment, maybe, that can convince more people to drop out and innovate. He is serious about that. If you want to drop out of college to innovate, he has a scholarship for you. If you want to try to fix the current American system, well, best of luck. ‘I’m sort of skeptical of how much voting actually works in the first place,’ says Thiel. ‘I used to think that it was really important to directly change the political system, to convince people of things. I still think it’s intellectually very important. Occasionally, you get some converts that way. But it’s really an inefficient way of doing things…’ Thiel has invested in a presidential campaign; he’s also invested in a plan to build floating sovereign island nations. This is a donor who likes to plan for the future.

MarketWatch’s Paul B. Farrell says it’s not halftime in America, but sudden death: “The Game is also not about politics. Politicians don’t work for voters. Both parties are just mercenaries placing bets in a high-stakes casino bankrolled by and for the Super Rich.  Forget democracy, voting, politics. It’s now painfully obvious to all that today billionaires with personal agendas are running American politics. Our votes are irrelevant. The Super Rich bet on both parties. And they get huge payoffs, no matter who’s elected.  No Clint, this is not a game, this is war, anarchy, an out-of-control economic war that’s already rewarded the top 1% with a 265% wealth increase the past three decades, while the incomes of the 99% have flat-lined, killing the middle class.”

The Coming Gas Wars

Oil prices spike on Iran export halt. Is $4 gas next? [CNN Money]: “Oil prices rose Monday after Iran cut exports to Britain and France, raising worries that higher gas prices may follow suit. Iran’s oil ministry said Sunday that it would stop exporting oil to French and British companies. The announcement came just days after Iran threatened to cut supplies to some European Union countries in retaliation for sanctions put in place by the EU and United States. …Prices are already up nearly 9% from the start of the year. According to motorist group AAA, the national average price of $3.56 a gallon marks the 13th consecutive increase. The price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. will likely hit a nationwide average of $4 by this summer, said Dan Dicker, oil trader and author of ‘Oil’s Endless Bid.’ The last time prices topped $4 was 2008 and Dicker said there’s a one in three chance that gas could reach $5 a gallon.”

Rising gas prices give GOP weapon against Obama [USA Today]: “Gas prices are starting to top $4 a gallon on the upper Midwest, West Coast and other parts of the country, raising the spector that Republicans can use the issue to topple President Obama in November.  Gas prices have generally moved in tandem with the economy. When unemployment is high and growth is stagnant, gas prices topple. Now, with the economy starting to show some gains, gas demand is rising among people who have to get to work and who now have some money in their pockets for vacations or a second, or third car, so they are rising again.”

Robert Reich reports from the front lines of the gas wars: “Nothing drives voter sentiment like the price of gas – now averaging $3.56 a gallon, up 30 cents from the start of the year. It’s already hit $4 in some places. The last time gas topped $4 was 2008.  And nothing energizes Republicans like rising energy prices. Last week House Speaker John Boehner told Republicans to take advantage of voters’ looming anger over prices at the pump. On Thursday House Republicans passed a bill to expand offshore drilling and force the White House to issue a permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. The tumult prompted the Interior Department to announce on Friday expanded oil exploration in the Arctic.  If prices at the pump continue to rise,  expect more gas wars.”

Economic Update

Obama peddles modest American dream [AP]: “What Obama describes as the American Dream can seem a spare, fundamental aspiration, tailored for a campaign that looks to be fought over who is best equipped to safeguard the interests of middle-class Americans.  The question is whether it will convince, even as Mitt Romney and the other GOP presidential hopefuls mount a counter-argument that the president has made the American Dream harder, not easier, to achieve. And Obama must overcome the grinding realities many voters confront daily, even with the economy showing signs of life: no jobs, mortgages they can’t pay, dwindling retirement funds and college savings.  The president is betting that if he shows voters he understands their yearning for economic stability and security, they’ll reward him over Republicans he’s casting as just watching out for the rich – even though he hasn’t succeeded in fully reviving the economy so far.”

Some Doubt a Settlement Will End Mortgage Ills [NTY]: “Even as government officials prepare to unveil new standards this week for how banks treat millions of Americans facing foreclosure, housing advocates and homeowners are skeptical the rules will be able to do something past efforts have not: provide a beleaguered borrower with one individual to help them navigate the mortgage maze. While the entire process of seeking a mortgage modification is complicated and time-consuming, few elements are as maddening as the inability to get through to a representative at the bank, or being asked for the same documents again and again.  So the promise of a single point of contact has emerged as a crucial element in the much-ballyhooed $26 billion settlement reached earlier this month involving state attorneys general, the federal government and the five biggest mortgage servicers. These rules will apply nationwide and come with commitments of strong enforcement by federal and state authorities, but they carry a familiar ring for those experienced in the foreclosure process.”

Mike Lux looks ahead at 2012 and asks “What if the economy heads back downhill?”: “If every jobs report over the next 8 months has at least 250,000 new jobs like the last one did, President Obama should easily cruise to victory over Romney or Santorum or whatever unlucky soul the Republicans put up. But if things take a turn for the worst, as is easy to imagine given the underlying structural problems this economic car we’re driving has, it is going to be a hell of a ride. The president’s team needs to hope for the best but plan for the worst, and they need to take care to not brag too much about whatever good we are seeing. They need to make damn sure the financial fraud task force succeeds, because more is riding on that than many people realize. And above all, they need to fight like bulldogs for the middle class. That strategy gives them a solid chance to win the 2012 election no matter what else happens.”

GOP Race To The Right

Michael Tomasky writes that there will be no savior for the GOP in 2012: “If Mitt Romney fails to win Michigan next Tuesday, a few high-powered Republicans have started saying, the party needs to go back to square one and recruit a new candidate. Yes, maybe it does. But what will that fix? Not much. What the party needs is not simply a new candidate. It needs someone with the courage to stand up and say that the GOP has gone completely off the deep end—and that the party could run an amalgam of Ronald Reagan and Mahatma Gandhi and he wouldn’t win as long as the party’s inflamed base keeps with its current attitudes. But it lacks such a person utterly. It’s a party made up of on the one hand unprincipled cowards, and on the other of people devoted to principles so extreme that they’d have serious trouble attracting more than about 42 percent of the vote.”

Meteor Blades asks the two burning questions for the GOP — Can Santorum get beyond the GOP base? Can Romney get the GOP base?: “One reason Republican elders are futilely pounding on Mitch Daniels’s door at this late date is Mitt Romney. The other is Rick Santorum. To the elders, each man appears to be parading around with a big “L” for loser-in-November engraved on his forehead. For Santorum, it’s a matter of being able to persuade people that the positions he has been espousing in the campaign so far don’t mark him as outside even the mainstream of an ever-more-rightward party on issues of abortion, birth control, women’s role in society, environmental matters including climate change and his recent two-steps-forward, one-step-back comments regarding who, including the president of the United States, is and is not truly a Christian. …For Romney, it’s the opposite problem. Ginning up Republican enthusiasm come November if he should get the nomination, which most analysts still believe to be the most likely outcome of the primary contest, could be difficult, to say the least.”

WaPo’s Eugene Robinson writes that Rick Santorum could take the Republicans down with him: “Santorum’s social conservatism is a huge iceberg, and his views on women and childbearing are just the tip. He not only opposes gay marriage but has criticized the Supreme Court decision that struck down anti-sodomy laws and declared that “I have no problem with homosexuality. I have a problem with homosexual acts.” That alone would be enough to put him well outside the mainstream. But his Ozzie-and-Harriet ideas about family life place him in a different solar system. …The issue, for Republicans, is not just that Santorum would lose in November. It’s that he could be a drag on House and Senate candidates as well. Imagine, say, Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) trying to explain to his constituents why someone who doesn’t fully understand women’s participation in the workforce should be president.”

Breakfast Sides

Gary Younge notes Barack Obama’s lucky history of hapless opponents: “Barack Obama has often been lucky with his enemies. …Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign was far less than the sum of its parts; John McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, a hail Mary pass that went seriously awry.  Now, as he heads for reelection, he must be saying a prayer every day in thanks for Mitt Romney. The problem with the former Massachusetts governor is not sex and aggression in the home but a lack of passion and affection on the stump. For in the former Massachusetts governor the Republican party has found the worst of all worlds: a candidate feasible enough to represent their best hope and yet insufficiently appealing to be able to leverage that feasibility into electoral capital. Since Iowa, his nomination has seemed as inevitable as his candidacy was vulnerable. It can’t get any worse than a presumptive nominee whose nomination seems presumptuous.”

Ian Fletcher dissects the disingenuous economics of Ron Paul: “So Rep. Paul is in favor of free trade in theory, he’s just not in favor of free trade as actually practiced. What a neat way to simultaneously preserve one’s fealty to an ideological ideal while also being able to take a swipe at unpopular “special interests and big business.”  Any problems you think free trade causes? They’re the bad guys’ fault.  This stance renders the idea of free trade logically immune to any empirical counter-evidence, because one can always explain away that evidence as being due to imperfect implementation. …Unfortunately, free trade isn’t just a good thing, badly implemented. It is fundamentally defective in its own right. (There’s not the space to explain why here, but I did write a whole book on the question, with a skeleton summary here.) For most of American history, we didn’t practice it. …But does Dr. Paul say this? No. He doesn’t even give a hint that he’s even aware of it. So this isn’t, apparently, what he means.”

Matt Yglesias expains why the fast food industry hates the idea of raising the minimum wage: “I find that a lot of discussions of the appropriate level of the minimum wage tend to be unduly abstracted away from the practicalities. The food service industry is precisely where the “marginal worker” tends to be employed, and I think it’s no coincidence that this industry features a gigantic loophole to the generally prevailing rule. To really put competing theories of the minimum wage to the test, you’d have to have a loophole-free generally enforced rule. Instead we have a big loophole for waitresses and at the other end of the labor market a big loophole for interns.”

Morning Message: Super PACs: Derivatives Of Politics

OurFuture.org’s Robert Borosage: “Financial wilding led to our economic collapse. Use of exotic “innovations” — like derivatives and credit default swaps — exploded. Regulators were paralyzed while huge bets were made in the shadows. Markets, we were assured, self-regulate. Congress blocked reform. Big money rushed in, seeking ever higher returns. Laws legitimized shadow financial activities. Speculation careened out of control. A similar wilding now threatens our democracy as out-of-control big money floods our elections. These exotic derivatives are the super PACs and related operations, fueled by cartloads of secret money. The Federal Election Commission is toothless and paralyzed. Congress blocks new regulations. The Supreme Court opened the floodgates with Citizens United, ruling that corporations have the right to spend unlimited sums in “independent expenditure” campaigns. The marketplace of ideas, we are assured, can regulate itself. This financial wilding is likely to escalate until it thoroughly corrupts our democracy.”

Payroll Tax Deal … For Real This Time?

Congress reaches final payroll tax deal [CNN]: “Congressional negotiators resolved all differences on an agreement to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits while avoiding a fee cut for Medicare doctors for the rest of the year, leaving only technical issues to sort out. ‘It’s good for the country. It’s very good for the country,’ Montana’s Max Baucus, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said early Thursday in announcing the deal. But resolving those technical issues and getting the necessary signatures required to finalize the conference report was expected to take through at least Thursday.”

Congressional negotiators reach deal on $150 billion economic plan [Washington Post]: “In a pact early Thursday morning, congressional negotiators gave final approval to an economic plan worth more than $150 billion that would extend a payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits.  A key roadblock was overcome when the lawmakers agreed to require new federal workers to contribute more to their pension plans, clearing the way around 12:30 a.m. for a majority of the House-Senate conference committee to begin signing the deal. The pension provision represented a concession to key Maryland Democrats who, even after prodding from President Obama, did not grant their support until current federal workers were shielded from the new pension plan, aides in both parties said. A vote could come as early as Friday, the last act in a five-month battle over Obama’s proposed jobs plan.”

“Party of No” No More?

Payroll tax deal close: Why did Republicans back down? [Christian Science Monitor]: “House Republicans wanted offsets, or spending cuts, to make up for the nearly $100 billion cost of extending the tax cut holiday through 2012.   But the politics wasn’t working out for Republicans. On Monday, House speaker John Boehner, flanked by majority leader Eric Cantor of Virginia and majority whip Kevin McCarthy of California, offered to back an extension of the payroll tax holiday without offsets. House Republican leaders faced their caucus late Tuesday with a blunt message: We got the policy right but the politics wrong – and now it’s time to move on, they said, according to members at the closed meeting.”

GOP eases its culture of ‘no’ [Politico]: “Republicans happily cultivated a culture of “no” during President Barack Obama’s first two years.  …But the payroll tax cut deal this week has delivered a shock to that culture of “no” — and more Republicans are suddenly saying ‘yes’ to the idea that it’s OK to fold a losing hand, shuffle the deck and play for a bigger pot later. Most of those who will vote ‘no’ on the payroll package aren’t yelling “hell no” in closed-door meetings or whipping their colleagues to join them in opposition to the Republican leadership. They will quietly consent to letting the bill become law without a bloody civil war. …Simply put: The GOP majority is showing signs of growing up. It’s learning how to cut political losses and taking the long view on policy fights that started before the freshman newbies showed up last January.”

John Boehner Stalls Transportation Bill Vote As GOP Leaders Struggle To Secure Support: “A long-term blueprint for federal transportation programs was delayed Wednesday by House Speaker John Boehner as GOP leaders scramble to shore up support for the endangered measure.  Boehner told Republican lawmakers at a closed-door meeting that he has delayed final action on the 4 1/2 -year, $260 billion bill until after next week’s congressional recess. Republicans had been saying they hoped to pass it this week.  Boehner cited two reasons for the delay: It will take more time than planned to work through nearly 300 amendments lawmakers want to offer, and Republicans need to find more money to pay for the bill, said spokesman Michael Steel.  But others in both parties said there are so many Republicans who object to some portion of the 1,000-page bill that it can’t pass in its present form.”

Foreclosure Deal Update

States use mortgage deal money to plug budget holes [CNN]: “States are getting $2.5 billion from the national mortgage settlement, but not all of that money is going to help troubled homeowners. At least two states — Missouri and Wisconsin — are using the funds to plug big holes in their budgets. This does not sit well with some consumer advocates, who would prefer to see the money go to help those suffering from the housing crisis. Federal and state officials last week announced a $26 billion foreclosure settlement with five of the largest home lenders over allegations of improper foreclosures based on robosigning and faulty paperwork. The vast majority of the funds will be used to provide principal reduction or refinancing, as well as payments to borrowers who lost their homes. …But, like in the 1998 tobacco settlement that was supposed to fund health programs, states have some leeway in how they use the money.”

Homeowners get more time for foreclosure reviews [Washington Post]: “Federal regulators have announced that they would give borrowers who have faced foreclosure since early 2009 an additional three months to have their cases reviewed for potential wrongdoing.  Borrowers will now have until July 31 to apply for the free review, which stems from a deal last year in which 14 servicers agreed to hire independent consultants to evaluate whether homeowners suffered financial injury during the foreclosure process. If a review finds errors or abuses by the financial firms, the consultants will determine what recompense wronged homeowners deserve. …The reviews apply to borrowers whose loans were in the process of foreclosure between Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2010.”

Mike Lux outlines a new strategy for Wall Street accountability: “One of the things progressive activists always need to be careful of is letting down after a big fight comes to a conclusion. With the banking settlement finished, one phase of the fight for Wall Street accountability is over, but now we enter an even more important next phase. And whether you viewed the settlement as a win, a defeat, or (like me), some of both, progressives who want big bank accountability and a better financial system in this country need to unite as we move into this new phase. There are four major things our side needs to simultaneously develop long term strategies around…”

Manufacturing Boost

President Visits Wisconsin Factory to Hail ‘Insourcing’ Plan [NYT]: “President Obama came here on Wednesday to promote his new ‘insourcing’ economic plan, which he says could help prod American manufacturers to bring jobs home from China and elsewhere overseas. But the biggest question buzzing about his visit was what he and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin would say to each other when they toured the plant that served as poster child du jour for Mr. Obama’s rollout. Alas, it was not to be; Mr. Walker, a Republican who is facing a recall election that he has boldly predicted will be a bellwether for Mr. Obama’s own chances in Wisconsin, pulled out of the joint tour with the president at the last minute. Mr. Walker’s spokesman told reporters that the governor had the flu so he would not join Mr. Obama to congratulate Master Lock for bringing jobs back to the United States.”

Fact Check: Obama and the Resurgence of American Manufacturing [ABC News]: “President Obama is this week heralding the resurgence of American manufacturing as a leap toward an ‘economy built to last,’ and a sign that he deserves a second term. ‘For the first time since 1990, American manufacturers are creating new jobs,’ Obama said at a Master Lock facility in Milwaukee on Tuesday. ‘That’s good for the companies, but it’s also good up and down the supply chain.’ Obama’s claim — an apparent bright spot in a sea of still gloomy economic news — is corroborated by government statistics, which show an undeniable rebound for manufacturers during his term, both in terms of productivity and employment of American workers. When Obama took office in January 2009, unemployment in the manufacturing sector stood at 10.9 percent and spiked to 13 percent a year later, according to the Labor Department. ”

Obama, GOP candidates more hopeful about factory jobs [Washington Post]: “For years, politicians have delivered the same grim message to the nation’s long-suffering manufacturing heartland: Many of the jobs are gone, shipped overseas, never to be seen again.  In his 2008 presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) famously — and ill-advisedly — told Michigan voters that the jobs ‘are not coming back. . . . And I am sorry to tell you that.’ President Obama said as much during a 2009 visit to the state. But this year, in a White House contest defined by the economy and job creation, that harsh truth-telling has given way to a more hopeful pitch from Obama and the Republicans trying to replace him amid the strongest uptick in manufacturing employment in 15 years.”

Odds On Obama Re-Election

Poll: Obama Hits 50% Approval, Leads All GOP Rivals, For Now [NPR]: “The new CBS News/NY Times poll definitely contains the kind of information that could put a little spring in any president’s step.  The poll, released Tuesday, found President Obama’s approval rating had bounced back up to 50 percent from 47 percent in January. Not a huge improvement but in presidential politics, getting to at least 50 percent approval is seen as key for an incumbent hoping to win re-election. The recovering economy gets much of the credit for his rising approval rates.”

Nate Silver says the odds shift towards Obama: “Obama’s most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, continues to rate as a ‘generic Republican.’ In fact, he now scores at exactly 50 on the 100-point scale from centrist to extremist. That means an election against Romney, like Bush’s against Kerry, would mostly be dictated by the fundamentals of the economy and by evaluations of Obama’s job performance. With 2.5 percent G.D.P. growth from now through November, Obama would be a 60 percent favorite to win the popular vote.  The popular vote is one thing, however. The Electoral College is another — and Romney could have more vulnerabilities there.  In recent weeks, Obama has taken a more populist approach (just read the transcript of his State of the Union address). The strategy has induced more howls than usual from Republicans about ‘class warfare,’ but the White House has clearly studied the numbers. In the Republican primaries, Romney has had trouble winning the loyalty of working-class voters, especially in the Midwest.”

Taegan Goddard reports that Obama leads all his GOP rivals: “A new CNN/Opinion Research survey shows President Obama beating all of his possible Republican rivals in GOP match ups.   Obama leads Romney, 51% to 46%, tops Santorum, 52% to 45%, beats Paul, 52% to 45%, and crushes Gingrich, 55% to 42%.  A new Fox News poll of key battleground states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin — shows the same.   Obama leads Romney, 47% to 39%, tops Santorum, 48% to 38%, beats Paul 48% to 37% and crushes Gingrich, 52% to 32%.”

Ezra Klein explains the best way to judge Obama’s first — and his second: “For Obama, it’s about more than the asterisk. The most important fact of Obama’s reelection campaign is that, if he wins, the single most important accomplishment of his second term will be protecting the gains of his first term. If he wins, the Affordable Care Act — barring a truly unexpected ruling from the Supreme Court — becomes the law of the land. If he wins, Dodd-Frank becomes the law on Wall Street. If he loses, both policies are likely to be either rolled back or hollowed out. Bush’s victory in the Gulf War withstood Bill Clinton’s election, and the Camp David agreement was not undone by Ronald Reagan. In Obama’s case, however, a failure to win a second term will not just color his accomplishments. It will decide their fate. Moreover, if Obama did win a second term his accomplishments would be comparatively limited. He will not enjoy anything like the congressional majorities of his first two years again. He is likely to face a Republican House or a Republican Senate or both. What he can accomplish in terms of new legislation will thus depend on how much congressional Republicans want him to accomplish in terms of new legislation.”

Mitt’s Missed Connections

Romney struggling to attract white working class [AP]: “WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Mitt Romney is faltering with white working-class voters crucial to his party’s drive to capture the White House, even as he tries to fend off a rising GOP challenger, Rick Santorum, who wields strong blue-collar appeal. The wealthy former Bain Capital chief has led his rivals by comfortable margins among white college graduates, according to combined polls of voters in the first five states that held presidential nominating contests. But the exit and entry surveys showed only a modest Romney advantage among whites who lack college degrees, the yardstick analysts typically use to define the working class.  The imbalance was most pronounced among less-educated white men, with whom his lead disappeared.”

Conservative Pundits Find Romney Disengaged, and Say That’s Puzzling [NYT]: “From the television studios of Fox News to the pages of The Weekly Standard, the refrain of the conservative opinion machine is virtually the same: Mitt Romney doesn’t talk to us, doesn’t get us. ..Mr. Romney’s distant, complicated relationship with many of the conservative media’s leading voices has heightened concerns that his convictions are not as genuine and deep-seated as their own. Many commentators have pounced on some of Mr. Romney’s recent remarks — saying that he is “not concerned about the very poor” because they have a government safety net and that he was a ‘severely conservative’ governor — as proof that he cannot speak their language.  ‘The real problem here is that it shows he doesn’t have fluency with conservative ideas,’ Charles Krauthammer, the conservative columnist, said on Fox News.”

WaPo’s E.J. Dionne sums up Mitt Romney’s biggest problem: “Mitt Romney has lost his central asset. It is no longer obvious that he is the Republican with the best chance of defeating President Obama.  Romney was never fully trusted or liked by the staunchest conservatives, a rather large Republican constituency. But until now, enough of them have been willing to swallow their doubts at critical moments because they believed the former Massachusetts governor was the one potential nominee who could win the election. This is not true anymore. Reflecting the damage Romney’s image has suffered in the six weeks since voting started in Iowa, he is running little better than Rick Santorum, now his main opponent, in matchups with the president. And both of them are losing.”

Breakfast Sides

Chris Lehman explains how Mormon economics shape the GOP: “Perhaps most important, Mormons, unlike adherents of most mainline Protestant denominations, have very little ambivalence about the acquisition of wealth. One scours the endless, incantatory pages of Joseph Smith’s revelation in vain for any suggestion that wealth complicates the spiritual lives of believers. Not for Mormons the queasy business about the camel going through the needle’s eye before a rich man enters the Kingdom of Heaven. Instead, paradise is pretty much set aside for the enterprising rich, whose upward mobility is thought to persist even in the three-tiered scheme of the Mormon afterlife.  These innovations in economic theology have long seemed a bit quaint — akin to the picture-book accounts in LDS scripture of wars and dynasties. But in recent years, and especially with the G.O.P.’s tilt to the right and the rise of the Tea Party, such beliefs no longer appear so fanciful. Indeed, the Mormon infatuation with maximal investor returns and precious metals has shaded steadily into the center of conservative mainstream thought.”

William Pfaff diagnoses the cause of Greek unrest — suppressed democracy: “Among Greeks, the opinion is widespread that once again, as in 1917, 1940 and 1947, when, as they are convinced, they were ill-used by the great Western powers, they once again are victims of Western Europe, and especially of Germany. They cannot deny the reproaches of economic mismanagement and corruption since their country joined the EU, but they did not need a German official to propose that an EU-appointed commissioner, whom angry Greeks are calling a German gauleiter, be sent to take charge of Greece’s economy—which, after all, is only 2 percent of the European economy. Another German was overheard confiding to a Portuguese official that if Portugal, also in grave difficulties, needs help, there would be no trouble providing it — implying that a certain “racial” hierarchy prevails in European and international economic circles.”

Steve M. says it’s overly generous to call what the GOP is doing “strategy”: “I think it’s a stretch to call what Republicans have come up with a “strategy.” The people who are taking on these fights in the GOP aren’t shrewdly and carefully assessing the percentages of liberals, moderates, and conservatives in America, and planning accordingly — they’re drinking their own Kool-Aid and concluding, at least on a subconscious level, that they don’t have to worry about non-conservative voters because non-conservatives aren’t really Americans.  Ann Coulter says Democrats would never win if we took away women’s right to vote. Rush Limbaugh says Obama is pursuing an electoral strategy of trying win the votes of ‘the takers,’ not ‘the makers.’ These are rhetorical flights of fancy, but I think a large percentage of Republicans actually believe them, and have started to think that voters who don’t pull the (R) lever aren’t actually voters at all, because they shouldn’t be. The ultimate example of this is the tea party’s claim that its members are “taking our country back” — as if it exclusively belongs to them.”

Morning Message: Obama’s Budget: the Good, the Meager and the Ugly

OurFuture.org’s Robert Borosage: “President Obama’s budget, dismissed as “dead on arrival,” by Republicans in Washington, is widely described as a political document, designed to highlight the choices facing Americans this fall in dry budgetary numbers. The president presents Americans with a series of common sense propositions – all of which Republicans reject. Yet if the president captures high ground along the way, he leaves us, in the end, near the same uninhabitable place that conservatives would take us.”

Obama’s Budget

Obama Aims $1.4 Trillion Tax Increase at Highest Earners [Bloomberg]: “President Barack Obama called for $1.4 trillion in fresh revenue from Americans at the top of the income scale, proposing higher taxes on wages and investments and limiting breaks for retirement savings and health insurance. The tax proposals in the administration’s fiscal 2013 budget plan, released yesterday, were immediately rejected by business groups and congressional Republicans, who said the ideas are part of Obama’s re-election strategy and gave them little chance of advancing into law in 2012. …In what he billed a bid for tax fairness and deficit reduction, Obama reversed his previous policy of taxing dividends more lightly than wage income. The budget plan would raise $206.4 billion over 10 years by treating dividends as ordinary income for married couples making more than $250,000 a year and individuals making more than $200,000.”

Jeff Madrick, at New Deal 2.0, says Obama’s budget finally gets the poltics right: “President Obama’s budget for 2013 is a sharp improvement over his 2012 budget. What a difference a year makes. Back then, the emphasis was all deficit all the time. …Last September, Obama changed his tune. He at last conceded that jobs were America’s biggest problem, not the federal deficit. Fortunately, he has kept talking that line. The new budget reflects that wisdom. Was it the Occupy Wall Street effect? I think to some degree it was. But the relentlessness of high unemployment numbers until recently could not be ignored.”

Rising Economy Lifts Obama

Obama Gets Bounce as Economic Advances Lift Poll Standing [Bloomberg]: A brightening economic picture is improving President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects even as the pace of the nation’s recovery from financial crisis remains a vulnerability for his campaign. Public approval of Obama’s performance in office in the Gallup Organization’s daily tracking poll climbed to its highest level since last June just days after the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest in almost three years.”

It’s Not Just National, Obama Improving In Swing States Too [Talking Points Memo]: “President Obama’s improving national approval numbers are certainly helpful to his re-election efforts — they drive a positive narrative after years of disappointing news on the economy. But while nationwide numbers provide a snapshot of the country’s mood, the battle for the presidency will be fought state by state. So are Obama’s numbers also looking up in the all important swing states? It sure looks that way. Here is our TPM Poll Average of national approval numbers for President Obama, which now show the President back in positive territory.”

Adam Sorenson explains why Obama’s re-election prospects are looking up: “Voters might not feel like he’s doing a much better job, but they are beginning to feel better about the direction of the country economically, a dynamic which favors the incumbent. Three-quarters of Americans still believe the economy is in bad shape, according to the NYT/CBS poll, but the remaining 23% who say things are good is the highest level since last spring. More importantly, the number of Americans who think the economy is improving—absolutes are less important in politics than a feeling of positive movement—has grown even faster: 34% in the same survey, up six percentage points in a month. Gallup data also show the highest economic confidence level in a year, and the crucial outlook number overtook appraisals of current conditions in December, a trendline that holds promise for the current occupants of the White House.”

Payroll Tax Cut Deal Reached

Tentative payroll tax cut deal reached, GOP legislators say [CNN]: “Congressional negotiators reached a tentative deal Tuesday to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits while avoiding a fee cut for Medicare doctors, according to Republican legislators and aides. The framework deal followed a key Republican concession Monday and could receive the endorsement of a House-Senate conference committee on Wednesday. Reps. Renee Ellmers of North Carolina and Fred Upton of Michigan, both Republicans who were part of the conference committee negotiations, called it a tentative agreement, while a top House Democratic aide said Democratic leaders would discuss the proposal with their members on Wednesday morning.”

Republican Leaders Selling Members on U.S. Payroll Tax Cut Plan [Bloomberg]: “U.S. House Republican leaders began selling members on a tentative agreement to extend a payroll tax cut through 2012 as they seek to avoid the brinkmanship that hurt the party late last year. Republicans met privately for more than an hour last night as House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp of Michigan described what he told reporters was a “framework” for a deal. The plan would extend the two- percentage-point payroll tax break for workers through Dec. 31 without covering the $94 billion cost, said Representative Kevin Brady of Texas and other lawmakers who attended the meeting. It also would continue expanded unemployment benefits while gradually reducing the maximum number of weeks people can collect payments and avert a 27 percent cut in doctors’ Medicare reimbursements through the rest of this year, Brady and the other lawmakers said. Those would be paid for with reductions elsewhere in the budget.”

The Xi Factor

China’s heir apparent to meet with congressional leaders: “China’s presumptive next leader, Xi Jinping, is expected to meet with U.S. congressional leaders Wednesday on the third day of a visit that could influence relations between the two world powers for years to come. Xi, who currently holds the position of Chinese vice president, is also due to deliver a major policy address to public and private sector leaders at a hotel in Washington before he travels on to Iowa, a state he first visited as an agricultural official in 1985. President Barack Obama welcomed Xi at the White House on Tuesday but also set a firm tone for future ties between the countries. …At the Oval Office meeting Tuesday, Obama said that with China’s meteoric rise as an economic powerhouse came a responsibility to ensure balanced trade flows, referring to China’s trade surpluses. The president also raised the delicate issue of human rights as a critical area of concern for the United States.”

US President asks China to follow ‘same rules’ in trade [BBC News]: “Beijing has been accused of keeping the value of its currency artificially low in a bid to help its exporters. US lawmakers have argued that such practices have hurt US growth and resulted in job losses. Mr Obama raised the issue as he welcomed China’s Vice-President Xi Jinping to the White House. ‘We want to work with China to make sure that everybody is working by the same rules of the road when it comes to the world economic system,’ Mr Obama said . ‘That includes ensuring that there is a balanced trading flow, not only between the United States and China, but around the world.’”

China Vice-President Xi Jinping in US visit [BBC News]: “China’s leader-in-waiting, Xi Jinping, has defended his country’s human rights record, during a visit to Washington. At a State Department lunch, the Chinese vice-president admitted that there was “room for improvement” on human rights. …Mr Xi, who is in the US all week, said he had had a “candid exchange” regarding human rights with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. “I stressed that China has made tremendous and well-recognized achievements in the field of human rights over the past 30-plus years, since reform and opening up,” he said. “Of course, there is always room for improvement when it comes to human rights,” he added.”

Super PAC Kryptonite?

Obama: I won’t ‘unilaterally disarm’ on Super PACs: “President Obama says he doesn’t like the idea of Super PACs, but won’t oppose Democrats using them in his re-election campaign to fight off the spending of the Republicans. ‘We’ve got some of these (Republican) Super PACs that have pledged to spend up to half a billion dollars to try to buy this election,’ Obama said yesterday in an interview with WBTV, the CBS affiliate in Charlotte, N.C. ‘And what I’ve said consistently is, we’re not going to just unilaterally disarm.’”

Russell Simmons has some advice for the president regarding Super PACS — “Take the money!”: “We see every day how money is determining who ultimately will be the Republican nominee. The primary distinguishing characteristic between Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and Paul is the amount of money that they are acquiring. Therefore, President Obama made the right decision several days ago that he was not going to let those who want to take the nation backward outspend him for the attention and public mindset of millions of people who will be influenced by super PACs. I am very clear. President Obama should not surrender. The president should take the super PAC money, win the election and then lead the charge as president to take money out of politics through his active support and leadership to pass the Constitutional Amendment. Let’s get to work. Let’s make this happen.

Katrina vanden Heuvel, at WaPo, calls Obama’s Super PAC decision “a make-or-break moment for democracy”: “President Obama’s decision to endorse super-PAC money as part of his reelection effort exposed the enduring divisions within the progressive community between pragmatism and idealism. …And yet, I understand his decision. I even reluctantly agree with it. …There are times when you cannot win with one hand tied behind your back, when you cannot fight fire only with a philosophical opposition to fire. This is surely one of those times. There are baseball fans who despise the designated-hitter rule in the American League, but would any of them fault the Yankees for abiding by it? …I don’t mean to suggest that the ends justify the means. But I don’t think that it’s hypocritical to play by a set of rules you want to change. Still, the president shouldn’t assume that those accepting his decision are embracing it. And those accepting the decision shouldn’t let him off the hook. If he is going to endorse the use of super PACs, then he should endorse, as a central plank of his campaign, the fight to end them forever. If he doesn’t, the alternative to unilateral disarmament won’t be mutual disarmament; it will be mutually assured destruction.”

New Mexico state Sen. Eric Griego says his state is taking a stand against Citizens United: “Over the weekend, the New Mexico Senate joined the House in passing a resolution opposing Citizens United and calling for the U.S. Congress to send the states a constitutional amendment to overturn it. I’m proud to have co-sponsored the Senate solution (SM3) and cast the vote to allow our state to begin re-establishing our right to regulate elections. I strongly urge citizens across the country to keep pushing their states to do the same. The Citizens United decision was more than just a blow to democracy. It was a blow to states’ rights. Now states are scrambling to overturn the ruling and put their own campaign finance laws back in place.”

Romney’s Auto Bailout Spin-Out

Romney Says Obama Bailout Harmed, Not Helped, Auto Industry [Bloomberg]: “President Barack Obama used the bailout of U.S. automakers to enrich union supporters, marring the industry’s recovery, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said today in an op-ed column in the Detroit News. As part of Obama’s plan to save Chrysler Group LLC, the United Auto Workers’ trust fund received a 55 percent stake in the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company while Chrysler’s secured creditors got ‘short shrift,’ he wrote. …In his article, Romney described Steven Rattner, who headed the government’s auto task force, as a ‘politically connected and ethically challenged Obama-campaign contributor’ whose role in managing the bailout was part of ‘crony capitalism on a grand scale.’ Rattner, in an interview, called the column ‘one of the most remarkable pieces of retroactive hallucination that I’ve seen in a while.’ He said that without the action Romney decried, the car companies would have died.”

Laura Clawson breaks down Romney’s objections to the auto-bailout — it didn’t hurt workers enough: “Much of the message is that President Obama’s way did not hurt unionized auto workers enough. If longtime workers had only had their contracts broken, lost their pensions, and had their wages and benefits cut, things would have been so much better. To Romney, the fact that auto workers and their union made concessions including a years-long pay freeze and more for longtime workers and accepted a much lower wage for new hires is not enough. To take Romney’s point of view, you’re going to have to ignore the current strength of the American auto industry, and the fact that Romney’s desired approach was not viable in 2008, and that what Romney wanted was to bankrupt a generation of auto workers and leave a low-wage industry in place of the one that helped create the American middle class. But if Mitt Romney keeps saying the words ‘union boss,’ maybe you’ll see things his way.”

Romney’s Hard Line On U.S. Auto Industry Good For Primary But Trouble Beyond [NPR]: ” In a state so auto-industry dependent, it would seem a dubious proposition to call for the industry to go through the regular bankruptcy process with all the uncertainties and pain that would have entailed. … A potentially major problem for Romney is that, if he does go on to eventually win his party’s presidential nomination, it may prove very difficult for him to make more palatable for a general-election audience his “let them go bankrupt’ message of the primaries. His current position will be an especially hard sell to the many Michigan workers who supported the auto bailouts that actually started under President Bush and continued under Obama. And that’s not to mention the chilling effect his position will have on auto workers and union members in other states, as well as workers in related industries.”

Breakfast Sides

WaPo’s Harold Meyerson sees the GOP mired in some intra-party class warfare: “Republicans have reached their 1984. I don’t mean this in the Orwellian sense, though Republicans have more than their share of Orwellian impulses. Rather, I mean that the kind of divisions that have characterized Democratic presidential primaries since the 1984 contest between Walter Mondale and Gary Hart have now popped up in GOP primaries as well: This year, Republicans are dividing along lines of class. According to data compiled by the Wall Street Journal, in all the states that have voted thus far, Mitt Romney has won 46 percent of the counties with incomes higher than the statewide median, and just 15 percent of those with incomes beneath the statewide median. Rick Santorum, by contrast, has won 39 percent of the counties with higher income, and 46 percent of those with lower income.”

It was a very gay (marriage) wedding day, writes WaPo’s Elizabeth Flock: “On Tuesday, Washington became the seventh state in the United States to sign gay marriage into law, while the New Jersey Senate passed a gay marriage bill in spite of Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) promise to veto it. The same day in Australia, two bills to lift a ban against same-sex marriage were introduced in Parliament. But the support was not just legal. Last week, Washington Rep. Maureen Walsh (R.) surprised her fellow Republicans by taking to the floor and arguing about the importance of giving the opportunity to ‘individuals who truly were committed to one another in life to be able to. . . to show that by way of a marriage.’ Walsh also said her daughter was a lesbian and that, yes, she was someday going to throw her a wedding.”

Patrick Caldwell, at the American Prospect write that Republicans risk their future by opposing gay marriage: “The Republican Party might oppose legalized unions at the moment, but for the first time in 2011, a majority of the country disagreed. Support for same-sex marriage is growing each year across all age brackets, most significantly among younger Americans. When Gallup conducted a poll on the issue last year, 70 percent of people between the ages of 18-34 wanted to see the law changed. It’s only a matter of time before it becomes the prevailing view. Opposition to same-sex marriage will remain a plank of the GOP platform for some time, but it will become increasingly difficult for individual politicians seeking higher office to outright oppose LGBT rights.”